To avoid dangerous climate change, as set in the international policy consensus at the year 2100 to a limit of 2°C warming compared to preindustrial levels, worldwide GHG emission reductions of 20-30 per cent in the next 10-15 years and in the order of 80 per cent by 2050 will be required. However, national inventory systems have uncertainties and it is also uncertain how much and how long the greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere, or how feedbacks of the Earth System due to climate change will influence future natural sources and sinks. In addition, aerosols influence radiative forcing and cloud formation.
Complex interactions and reduction of uncertainties
These complex interactions might result in faster or slower reductions of the GHG concentrations in the atmosphere and radiative forcing, respectively, than anticipated. A continuous fine-tuning and adaptation of emission reduction policies will develop as time and our knowledge progresses. Also the societal costs for mitigation and adaptation might, therefore, be higher or lower than anticipated.
Risks of wrong investments correlate with the availability of knowledge and the reduction of uncertainties. The purpose of the side event in Paris is to deepen the global dialogue on one comprehensive observation and information system on greenhouse gases that is clearly needed to support climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Trust But Verify: Towards a comprehensive Global Observation, Information and Verification System on Greenhouse Gases
Tuesday, 1.12.2015, 12:15 – 13:45, Nordic Council of Minister’s Pavilion: New Nordic Climate Solutions, “Blue Zone”, Hall 2B, Room 65 – COP21, Le Bourget, Paris
Programme with presentations and a panel discussion
12:15 – 12:20 Welcome and Introduction (W Kutsch, ICOS)
12:20 – 12:35 Scientific Background (M Heimann, MPI-BGC)
12:35 – 12:50 The role of GEO (B Ryan, GEO)
12:50 – 13:05 WMO and IG3IS (P DeCola, IG3IS)
13:05 – 13:15 A concept for global integrated in-situ observations (T Petäjä, ACTRIS)
13:15 – 13:25 ICOS as an example for global integration of greenhouse gas observing networks (A Vermeulen, ICOS RI)
13:25 – 13:45 Panel discussion: Infrastructures as part of a global information system
• Tuukka Petäjä (ACTRIS)
• Alex Vermeulen (ICOS RI)
• Martin Heimann (Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena Germany) • Barbara Ryan (GEO)
• Phil DeCola (IG3IS)
Follow the discussion via Twitter #GHGobservations.
Minna Meriläinen-Tenhu, Press Officer, University of Helsinki, email@example.com