Russian modernization – analysis to support resistance

The book Rossiyskaya modernizatsiya: novaya paradigma (“Russian Modernization: a New Paradigm”) provides a comprehensive and holistic interpretation of contemporary Russia. In addition to internal and foreign affairs, it discusses economy, culture, subsistence issues and environmental politics. The book was originally published in 2021 (Routledge) as the final report of the Finnish Research Council’s Finnish Centre of Excellence in Russian Studies. The book’s Russian translation was released in Finland in October 2024. While it cannot currently be published in Russia, the importance of rigorous Russian studies has only increased in the wake of Russia’s ongoing war of aggression. 

The Centre of Excellence’s point of departure was the macrolevel, empirically observable challenges of Russia. These include the homogenous hydrocarbon-dependent economy, political system leaning towards authoritarianism, new model for social policy, trajectory of Russia’s foreign policy and the new identity as a state and a nation. In the translated volume, multidisciplinary group of about 50 researchers propose a new paradigm for Russian studies and a conceptual framework to analyze the developments of contemporary Russia. The paradigm consists of ten antinomies or contradictions. These antinomies are empirically observable tensions shaping different institutions and the range of possibilities for actors in contemporary Russia. 

1. Hydrocarbons as a blessing and a curse 
2. Neo-liberal economic policy versus a developmental state 
3. A hybrid of democracy and authoritarianism 
4. Rule of law versus informal networks and practices 
5. Neo-liberal withdrawal of the state versus state-oriented expectations of the population 
6. External vulnerability versus internal vulnerability in social policy 
7. The elite’s conflict with the middle and working class 
8. Global processes clashing with nationalistic closing 
9. Tension between power politics and interdependency 
10. A conservative hegemonic project versus secular liberalism 

These antinomies include numerous contingent choices, neither fully determined nor entirely impossible. While predicting the actions of any single actor remains elusive, we can illuminate the deeper societal tensions of enduring significance. Even if Putin were toppled, the fundamental antinomies of Russian modernization would not simply vanish. 

This observation is particularly relevant for the Russian opposition. While their bravery—at times reaching the level of martyrdom—is undeniable, the objectives of the opposition often remain ambiguous. This work does not offer ready-made solutions; rather, it highlights the key tension fields within which all political forces in Russia must navigate.  

While predicting the actions of any single actor remains elusive, we can illuminate the deeper societal tensions of enduring significance.

The perception of modernization of the Russian elite is narrow. From its perspective, it is simply a question of catching up to the economic and technological lead of the west. Our research reveals that this narrow approach to modernization is not a complete disaster. Efforts to diversify the economy have been pursued through various programs. However, no major technological breakthroughs have been achieved yet. Russia's economy continues to rely heavily on oil and gas. The hydrocarbons remain a blessing and a curse for Russia. 

An even bigger problem remains: the perception of modernization of the Russian elite does not include the elements of rule of law, democracy, or development of civil society. Russia’s current mission is all about opposing the west and is based on various conservative ideological currents. Putin’s rule is maintained by the day-to-day performance of power. On the international stage, Russia moves further and further from integration towards the frameworks of spheres of interest and a new Cold War.  

When the Centre of Excellence began its work in 2012, the world looked markedly different. Nearly all European countries had agreements with Russia promoting its modernization—something that now seems almost unimaginable. The Russian translation of the book, published after the escalation into Russia’s full-blown war of aggression, includes a new foreword by Finland’s former president Tarja Halonen. Additionally, co-editor Brendan Humphreys reflects on the implications of the war for the book’s conclusions. 

The Russian translation’s book launch event was organized in the Aleksanteri Conference of 2024, thematically centered on resisting authoritarianism. While the Russian authoritarian regime is in many ways contradictionary and vulnerable, there is no silver bullet to change it. For transformation, a broad coalition joining the varied opposition forces is needed in addition to a successful initiative in unifying the state level political scene with the grassroot level experience. Furthermore, a vision of how to use the power once it is achieved is crucial – for this task, resistance needs societal analysis more than ever! Social sciences have their limitations, but also a task: the choices cannot be made on the behalf of the actors, but the theory can supply the actors with concepts illuminating the playing field of the possibilities.