Research

This page will publish up-to-date updates on the research conducted within the project.
New measurement data to improve understanding of carbon sinks

In the HIKET project, Finland’s carbon balance measurement network is being updated, expanded, and enhanced with new functionalities. In practice, this means establishing new measurement stations across different ecosystem types and complementing observations at existing sites.

New stations are being built, for example, in a lingonberry-rich drained peatland forest in Ostrobothnia, as well as in well-growing mineral soil forests of different ages. In addition, a completely new type of station will be constructed in a river delta.

The aim is to collect more comprehensive, high-quality, and continuous observational data, including CO₂ flux measurements, eddy covariance, CH₄, and N₂O measurements.

Combining these data with remote sensing and satellite observations, as well as various modelling tools, will enable more reliable assessments of carbon sinks and greenhouse gas emissions.

Work within this work package has progressed rapidly: researchers have mapped measurement sites across Finland, and the first electrical installations will begin in the spring.

The goal is that by the end of the year, four new measurement stations will be continuously producing data streams within the participating organisations’ data systems.
Towards a new carbon balance interface

Data is currently fragmented, and existing interfaces are not always well known or easy to use. What is needed is a user-friendly, multi-layered solution that brings dispersed data together and serves a wide range of users, including researchers, ministries, companies, farmers, and application developers.

HIKET aims to develop precisely this kind of integrated solution to support research, climate policy preparation, corporate climate work, and reporting.

A stakeholder workshop organized by the HIKET project in February 2026 brought together researchers, representatives of ministries, companies, actors from the agriculture and forestry sectors, as well as data and modelling experts.

The aim of the workshop was to clarify:

  • What kind of interface would genuinely serve different user groups?
  • What is currently missing from existing systems?
  • What should be prioritized next?

Below are some key takeaways from the workshop:

Data verification and quality as the top priority
Users need clear information about data quality: where the data comes from and how reliable it is. Uncertainties and assumptions must be transparently presented within the interface. Metadata, including information on methods and datasets, is a critical component of trust.

Accessibility and usability
The interface must be user-friendly and multi-layered, serving both experts conducting in-depth analyses and decision-makers with limited time. Data should be accessible via APIs, but also easy to explore, download, and interpret through a visual user interface.

Scenario tools to support decision-making
There is a strong need for scenario tools. The interface should enable users to assess, for example, the impacts of forest management and agricultural practices, changes in peatland water management, and different climate scenarios. These analyses should be possible at multiple scales, from stand and field level to regional and national levels. There is also a need to compare models, integrate economic perspectives, and consider linkages between land use, the energy sector, and biodiversity.

Soil as the largest source of uncertainty
Soil processes, particularly in peatlands, were highlighted as a key challenge. While they are critical for carbon balances, they still involve significant uncertainties. Improved data, model development, and shared interpretation are needed.

Data openness, ownership, and security
A clear framework is needed to define which data is open and which requires permissions, how companies and landowners can contribute their data, and how data security and fair use can be ensured.
How can we assess the overall uncertainty of the GHG inventory in relation to other methods?

At the February uncertainty workshop, which focused on identifying, comparing, and reconciling uncertainties in carbon balance assessments across different approaches, HIKET researchers examined how uncertainty arises in methods such as greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs), eddy covariance (EC) measurements, satellite-based estimates, and inversion modelling. 

A key question was how the overall uncertainty of Finland’s carbon balance could be compared across these approaches.

Uncertainty is an inherent part of scientific knowledge production, and, for example, official GHGI reports always include uncertainty estimates related to the methods used in reporting.

The workshop discussions highlighted several key principles:

  • A shared conceptual framework is essential. Are sinks and emission sources defined consistently across methods? Are biomass removals, litter inputs, and soil carbon balances treated in the same way? Without comparability, combining methods may lead to misleading results and incorrect conclusions.
  • Uncertainty does not arise from a single source, but from the combined effects of multiple components. The carbon balance needs to be broken down into its elements, identifying what each method can measure or estimate and what it cannot. Improved observational data supports model development and increases confidence in projections, while the use of model ensembles can help to better constrain uncertainty ranges.
  • It is also important to recognise that different methods operate at different spatial and temporal scales. A systematic examination of these scale differences, from stand level to regional and national levels, and across interannual variability, is essential for understanding the structure of uncertainty.
  • Using multiple methods does not automatically reduce overall uncertainty. The priority is to identify the strengths and limitations of each approach.
  • By better understanding the sources of uncertainty, we can improve methods and validate data through complementary approaches. This, in turn, helps to narrow overall uncertainty and strengthens the scientific basis for more reliable climate policy decision-making.
How are Finland’s carbon sinks monitored?

On 4 December 2025, HIKET organised the seminar “Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Inversion Modelling”, bringing together over 80 researchers to discuss how Finland’s carbon sinks and land-use sector emissions are assessed through greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs) and inversion modelling, and how monitoring can be further improved.

At the seminar, experts from the University of Helsinki, the Natural Resources Institute Finland, and the Finnish Meteorological Institute presented on several key topics:

LULUCF sector inventory
Luke provided comprehensive presentations on how changes in forest carbon stocks, soil emissions, and land-use changes are calculated using, for example, National Forest Inventory (NFI) data and the Yasso07 model.

Soil carbon fluxes in forests, agriculture, and organic soils
Luke presented recent research data indicating that, particularly in southern Finland, carbon sinks have declined in recent years due to accelerated decomposition processes in organic soils and reduced litter input, weakening carbon sequestration also in mineral soils.

Agricultural emissions and their link to the LULUCF sector
Luke demonstrated how methane emissions from livestock, nitrogen emissions from fertilisation, and CO₂ emissions from peat soils are closely linked to the LULUCF sector, as the underlying activities take place on the same land areas.

New opportunities from satellite data
The Finnish Meteorological Institute presented how satellites such as OCO-2 and Sentinel provide independent data that can, in the future, support the refinement of national inventories and inversion modelling, even under Finland’s challenging climatic conditions.

Can atmospheric inversion modelling help reduce uncertainty in carbon balances?
Presentations from the Finnish Meteorological Institute illustrated how top-down models reveal both interannual variability and significant uncertainties, and why it is important to develop these methods alongside inventories.

HIKET aims to bring these elements together, combining measurements, satellite data, modelling, and inventories to improve the reliability and transparency of carbon sink monitoring in Finland. This work continues in close collaboration between the University of Helsinki, the Finnish Meteorological Institute, and Luke. In early 2026, discussions will continue with a particular focus on uncertainty.