On the Feasibility of the International Clearing Union: Three Scenarios and the Results of a Delphi Study.
Download Working Paper 7/2025
Abstract:
In the 2020s context of trade wars and the weaponisation of interdependence, the proposal for an International Clearing Union (ICU) has once again gained momentum. Such an institution could help resolve trade and monetary contradictions – and the conflicts they generate – but its feasibility remains uncertain. How could anything like the ICU be implemented in a world marked by disintegration tendencies and escalating conflicts?
This working paper has three main parts. First, I briefly outline several points about process ontology and its relevance to the possibility and nature of global reforms. Second, I present three scenarios – A, B, and C – for how the world’s monetary system might be reformed without a large-scale global catastrophe and primarily through peaceful means, although the third scenario includes a sub-scenario involving a context-changing war. Scenario A focuses on change through existing institutions, particularly the IMF and SDRs. Scenario B explores the possibility that a coalition of willing states, supported by global civil society movements and organisations, could create a new global system and invite others to join. Scenario C considers how a major crisis or transformation in the world historical context could catalyse reform.
In the third part, these scenarios are deepened through a Delphi study conducted in winter and spring 2025. Our research team invited global experts to assess the feasibility of an ICU-type arrangement and to evaluate the probability, relevance, and desirability of different scenarios. During the study, we developed additional scenarios outlining potential pathways and global processes that could lead to the adoption of such a system. One key possibility that emerged is that scenario C could pave the way for scenario B to materialise. The Delphi study also highlighted the growing significance of technologies such as central bank digital currencies and the potential role of regional clearing experiments in building the infrastructure for a Global Clearing Union (GCU). The panel further discussed how the principle of supranationality might enable a departure from the hierarchy and competition of national currencies, thereby transcending hegemonic aspirations and the conflicts they provoke. In this context, the cunning of cosmopolitan reason suggests that only such an impartial solution is likely to be acceptable to all participants.
Keywords: International Clearing Union, Keynes, trade wars, weaponisation of interdependence, trade imbalance, Delphi study, expert panel