APD can be thought of as an agricultural equivalent of biodiversity. Rather than measuring the diversity of species within an ecosystem, APD measures the diversity of agricultural production. There are several ways to calculate APD, but in our study we used a methodology borrowed from ecology, the Shannon Diversity Index.
The Shannon Diversity Index is a mathematical measure that captures both the quantity and relative abundance of different species, or in our case, different agricultural products. It considers not only how many types of produce are grown, but also how evenly production is distributed among them. The result is a single value that can be compared across regions and over time to assess changes in production diversity.
Why do we study APD?
APD has proven to be an important indicator of food system resilience. A diverse agricultural sector is generally better able to withstand external shocks such as droughts, pests, diseases, or market disruptions. Simply put, diversity increases the likelihood that some forms of food production will continue even when others are affected by a crisis.
At the same time, agriculture across Europe has been undergoing significant structural changes. Farms are becoming larger, fewer in number, and increasingly mechanised. These trends were also evident in our study, where we examined five landscape-related parameters and calculated APD for four countries: Finland, Sweden, Poland, and Latvia. By compiling data covering the period from 2000 to 2020, we analysed how changes in agricultural landscapes correlated with changes in production diversity.
What is happening to Agricultural Production Diversity?
Our results showed that APD increased in Finland, Sweden, and Poland over the twenty-year study period. This suggests that agricultural production in these countries has become more diversified, potentially strengthening food system resilience.
Interestingly, these increases occurred alongside major structural changes in agriculture, including farm consolidation, declining numbers of farmers, and increasing farm sizes. This finding contrasts with previous research, which often suggests that larger and more mechanised farms are associated with lower levels of production diversity.
Latvia, however, followed a different trajectory. While it experienced similar trends towards larger farms and agricultural intensification, the country recorded a significant decline in APD over the same period.
What explains these changes in APD?
Since no clear, universal pattern emerged across the four countries, we conclude that the drivers of APD are complex and multifaceted. A combination of policy, economic conditions, and historical factors is likely influencing these developments.
One important factor is the European Union. Through both the Single Market and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the EU can affect production diversity in different ways.
The Single Market may encourage specialisation by giving farmers access to larger markets and enabling them to focus on specific products. On the other hand, access to larger markets can also create opportunities for niche products, potentially increasing diversity.
The CAP may also influence APD through policies that promote crop diversification. For example, certain support payments have been linked to requirements for growing multiple crop types. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains a topic of debate, with several studies suggesting that their impact on actual diversification has been limited.
Historical developments may provide another explanation. Latvia experienced extensive collectivisation during the Soviet occupation beginning in the 1940s, which fundamentally transformed its agricultural structure. Poland, by contrast, avoided much of this collectivisation, resulting in a more fragmented agricultural landscape. The Nordic countries also have a long tradition of family farming, which has historically supported smaller-scale and more varied agricultural production.
Despite these different historical trajectories, all four countries have experienced a clear shift towards larger farms and more industrialised production methods in recent decades.
Why should urban residents care about APD?
Although urban agriculture initiatives are becoming increasingly popular, the vast majority of the food consumed in cities still originates from rural areas. Urban populations remain highly dependent on food produced on farms, often located far from the cities themselves and frequently in other regions or countries.
This dependence becomes apparent when visiting a local supermarket. Most products on the shelves have been grown, processed, or manufactured outside the city. Even when locally produced food is available, it is unlikely that urban populations could sustain themselves solely on food produced within city boundaries.
For this reason, APD is not only a rural concern. Diverse agricultural production in the countryside contributes to a more resilient food system by reducing vulnerability to disruptions and helping to maintain a stable food supply during times of crisis. From an urban perspective, APD plays an important role in ensuring both food security and food availability.
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