Federica's paper, published in Nature Communications, constitutes the first chapter of her thesis by addressing an important research gap regarding projected impacts of climate change on habitat-forming marine species. The auhtors used machine learning to model the future distribution of over 200 macrophyte species globally under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The study predicts that climate change will significantly alter macrophyte diversity and distribution, potentially reducing their range, species richness, and suitable habitats, with differing impacts for seagrasses and brown macroalgae.
Brown macroalgae and seagrasses provide essential ecological and socio-economic services in coastal areas worldwide. They support coastal biodiversity and fisheries, ensure coastal protection, participate in ocean nutrient recycling, contribute to carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation. A decline in these habitat-forming macrophytes can trigger cascading effects on other species, compromising the integrity of entire coastal ecosystems and undermining the services they provide to society. In particular, the loss of macrophyte habitats could threaten coastal communities that depend on macrophyte-associated fisheries, eroding livelihoods and traditional knowledge.
The projections in this study can help raise public awareness, guide conservation efforts, and inform policies to protect these foundational species and their benefits to human well-being. Notably, these findings have already provided the starting point for a large-scale collaborative and participatory project, fostering discussions on multi-dimensional impacts, adaptation strategies, and conservation and restoration options with coastal Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities.
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