Integrated Bayesian risk analysis of ecosystem management in the Gulf of Finland (IBAM)

Overview of the project

The main objective of IBAM is to create an environmental decision model for the Gulf of Finland. The model integrates risk management of five themes: fisheries, eutrophication, oil spills, dioxin risks related to the consumption of herring, and climate change. It will also include uncertainty in human responses to management, and will be used to rank decision options in an interdisciplinary and multiobjective context. The project will enable more effective learning in science by providing systematic tools and probabilistic data bases of state of nature to be used as prior information for future studies.

In addition to doing new research, IBAM will integrate results and utilize methodology from several previous projects such as OILECO, EVAGULF, PRONE, POORFISH, EVAHER, and JAKFISH.

Important themes are:

• Integration of risks: What happens when a species/population is threatened by several risks at the same time?
• Evaluation of management: Would integrated management of all sea-related pressures (oil transport, fishing, nutrient loading...) bring benefits compared to the current situation?
• Accounting for uncertainties in every step of the management process: stochasticity of natural processes, lack of knowledge about natural responses, uncertainty in human responses to management (Bayesian modelling)

IBAM is funded by the BONUS EEIG's BONUS+ Call.

IBAM team consists of five universities / research institutes:

• Fisheries and Environmental Management Group at the University of Helsinki
• Professor Sakari Kuikka, coordinator
• Inari Helle
• Environmental Geoinformatics Group, Helsinki University of Technology (TKK), Finland
• Professor Ari Jolma
• Anas Altartouri
• Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Estonia
• Dr. Robert Aps
• Finnish Environment Institute, Finland
• Dr. Heikki Pitkänen
• Ljudmila Vesikko
• University of Skövde, Sweden
• Professor Noél Holmgren
• Dr. Niclas Norrström

This site will be updated with information about research results, seminars, etc.