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The Aleksanteri Institute

Unioninkatu 33 (P.O. Box 42)
00014 University of Helsinki

Past Aleksanteri Conferences

Gaiane Safarova (Saint Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia), Natalia Kalmykova (Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia) and Anna Safarova (Saint Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia)

Dynamics of Life Expectancy at Older Ages in Russian Megacities (the Case of Moscow and Saint-Petersburg)

Steady progress of population ageing leads to increased importance of thorough analysis of this process. Big cities in general, and Moscow and Saint – Petersburg particularly, are at the forefront of demographic changes. One of the driving forces behind population ageing is increase in life expectancy (LE) at older ages. The paper aims at making a comparative analysis of LE at older ages in Moscow and Saint – Petersburg in 1990 – 2014 and to estimate the contribution of older ages (60+) to the LE increase. The paper is based on data given by Rosstat and HMD [1, 2]. Computations are made in Excel. Decomposition of LE changes to estimate contributions of different age groups is used. It has been found that in general, LE at older ages (60, 65, 70, 75 and 80) increase during 1990 – 2014 (relative to the initial year) for Moscow was greater than for Saint – Petersburg, for males - greater than for females. For the whole period, LE values for Moscow exceed those for Saint – Petersburg for all considered ages for males and females, with a very few exceptions. Changes in LE at birth for the last two decades (1996 – 2005 and 2005 -2014) are considered. Essential distinctions in the contribution of older age groups to changes in LE at birth for Moscow and Saint - Petersburg during 1996 – 2005 and during 2005 -2014 (for male and for female populations) have been revealed. Increasing LE of the elderly makes a significant contribution to the LE growth. This fact (apart from ethical considerations) is also a strong argument in favor of intensifying efforts to reduce morbidity and mortality of older people. 1. web site of Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) http://www.gks.ru 2. Human Mortality Database. (HMD) www.mortality.org *The paper has been supported by Russian Humanitarian Foundation, grant 16-02-00595