Conference e-mail

The Aleksanteri Institute

Unioninkatu 33 (P.O. Box 42)
00014 University of Helsinki

Past Aleksanteri Conferences

Yoko Hirose (Keio University, Japan / Aleksanteri Institute, University of Helsinki, Finland)

Effects of Ukrainian Crisis on Transnistria: Focusing on the Security Problem

The Ukraine Crisis, especially annexation of Crimea by Russia and the confusion of Eastern parts of Ukraine, has been serious threats for the former USSR states, and had serious impacts on the unrecognized states in the former USSR. In particular, Transnistria, which is the unrecognized states in Moldova republic, received bad economic influence by the Ukrainian Crisis. Transnistria has been unique compared to the other unrecognized states in the former USSR, and people and goods could be in and out Transnistria relative easily; and both Transnistria and the border region of Ukraine could have mutual benefits before the Ukraine Crisis, however Ukraine made the policy for Transnistria hard because of the threat of Russian attack via Transnistria. In addition, Russia has no afford to support Transnistria because of economic crisis and necessity of support for Crimea and Donbas region, then the economic situation of Transnistria became worse and worse. On the other hand, Transnistria has been trying to be annexed by Russia after annexation of Crimea by Russia, although it seems to be unrealistic. However, Ukraine and Moldova has been very sensitive for the Transnistian situation, because they fear that Russia may use Transnistria as the tool of “Hybrid Warfare” for Ukraine and Moldova. In fact, 2 May 2014 Odessa Clash has been widely believed was caused by pro-Russian people including people from Transnistria. “Unrecognized States” problem has been Russian effective diplomatic tool for the “Near Abroad, ” but the character has been changed after the Ukrainian Crisis. This paper try to make clear the new situation of Transnistria after the Ukrainian Crisis and analysis Russian policy for Unrecognized states and its “near abroad” thinking Russian “Sphere of Interest” in the global context.